◼ Last Week Summary: Last week, alumina prices for forward contracts experienced significant declines amid rumors of the resumption of Indonesian bauxite exports. However, spot prices remained relatively firm. Based on current fundamentals, alumina supply is projected to be constrained by ore supply issues from July to September, with the onset of the rainy season in Guinea negatively impacting short-term ore supply. This has not alleviated the tight spot alumina market situation, but the rumors of Indonesian ore exports are also difficult to verify. Consequently, the alumina market will continue to maintain a pattern of near-term strength, long-term weakness, and high volatility. As U.S. economic data weakened and macro factors such as the Trump administration's policies swayed, the non-ferrous metals sector gradually entered a trading range indicative of an economic slowdown, with the sector as a whole declining. Coupled with the traditional consumption off-season, aluminum prices also showed a notable decline. Nevertheless, from a practical consumption perspective, aluminum consumption in 2024 has increased significantly compared to the same period in 2023, suggesting that aluminum prices still have strong support.
◼ Futures Market: Alumina futures fell sharply last week, with the main contract opening at 3868 yuan/ton, reaching a weekly high of 3892 yuan/ton, a low of 3652 yuan/ton, and closing at 3756 yuan/ton, down 2.9%.
◼ Basis: Influenced by the decline in futures prices, alumina premiums across regions expanded significantly last week.
◼ Spot Prices: Domestic alumina prices showed no significant fluctuations last week, with Guangxi region having the highest price at 3940 yuan/ton and Shandong region having the lowest at 3895 yuan/ton.
◼ North-South Price Gap: The north-south price gap persisted in an inverted state, with southern prices (3935 yuan/ton) higher than northern prices (3896 yuan/ton). With the completion of operations in Yunnan, the north-south price gap remained stable.
◼ Domestic Bauxite: Domestic bauxite in Henan and Shanxi provinces remained tight and operated at high levels. Low-grade ore prices in Henan were 530 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, while in Shanxi, they were 570 yuan/ton, also unchanged. High-grade ore prices in Henan were 635 yuan/ton, and in Shanxi, 640 yuan/ton.
◼ Imported Bauxite: Guinea's imported ore prices increased slightly, while Australian ore prices remained stable. Guinea ore was priced at 74 USD/ton, up 1 USD from the previous week, and Australian ore was priced at 62 USD/ton. Recently, due to exchange rate fluctuations, ore costs have risen.
◼ Import Costs: Last week, West Australian FOB alumina prices fell to 493 USD/ton, with current import costs at 4365 yuan/ton. Alumina import profits were -462 yuan/ton last week.
◼ Import Demand: China's alumina operating capacity is approximately 85 million tons, but due to tight overseas alumina demand, there is a clear export demand for alumina.
◼ Shanghai Aluminum Prices: Shanghai aluminum prices fluctuated last week, opening at 20370 yuan/ton and closing at 20085 yuan/ton, down 1.54% for the week, with a high of 20485 yuan/ton and a low of 19890 yuan/ton. LME aluminum opened at 2534 USD/ton and closed at 2487.5 USD/ton, down 1.84% for the week.
◼ LME Aluminum Contango: The LME aluminum 0-3 backwardation widened to 63.04 USD/ton last week.
◼ Electrolytic Aluminum Profits: Electrolytic aluminum profits remained stable last week, falling from 2473 yuan/ton to 2233 yuan/ton. Currently, in terms of costs, with alumina and electricity prices declining slightly, the operating cost of electrolytic aluminum is 17906 yuan/ton, consistent with the previous week.
◼ Operating Capacity: Operating capacity last week was approximately 43.25 million tons, with Yunnan region having basically resumed production.
◼ SHFE-LME Ratio: The SHFE-LME ratio rose from 8.01 to 8.10 last
